OK, so this post is a little later than I intended, but here we go, the first post of the new era of The Restricted Zone.
There isn't a TON going on in the NBA right now because it's the off-season and we're already past most of the good bits. Summer league, major free agent acquisitions, the draft, all that good stuff is done. So now we have crummy rumors about Carmelo Anthony being disgruntled in Denver and the unpleasant news about the fools defacing the mural in Sacramento, etc. So what's there to talk about?
Well, by default, since we live in Toronto, we could talk about my Raptors... but frankly, I'm in the mood for a more positive topic, so let's see what we can dig up on the prospects of someone other than L.A., Boston or Miami. Those are presumably the three most likely options to win the title. For the sake of symmetry, let's have a peek out West and see if we can't find the next best option behind L.A.
The first option is obviously Dallas, since they were only 2 games behind the Lakers last year. With the Suns losing Amare, they're not likely to repeat quite the performance they had last season, so that leaves us considering Denver, Utah and then maybe San Antonio or Oklahoma City. So let's work from the bottom up, starting with OKC and finishing with Dallas.
The Thunder are mostly the same team that won 50 games and made the playoffs last year. They've added Cole Aldrich, Morris Peterson, Daequan Cook and they'll have a full season from Eric Maynor. Likely more valuable than any of those additions, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will each have learned lessons from the season and the first-round series against the Lakers. Durant was pretty disappointing in that series, shooting 35%, scoring 25 ppg mainly because he continued to draw FTAs. Westbrook looked pretty good, though Jeff Green was abysmal. James Harden will hopefully get a little better, Aldrich should work well as a sub for Ibaka and round out the frontcourt rotation, while Mo Pete and Daequan Cook should add subs who can stick threes, which were something of a problem for the Thunder in the series against L.A. for everyone but Westbrook and Harden, which of course didn't help offensive spacing or KD's case against the L.A. defense.
What are the chances they take a step forward? Well, they're almost sure to win 50+ again because most of the big noise was made out East and the WC didn't seem to get a lot better. The short answer to this is that Durant and Westbrook will drive that team; without significant improvement from one or both, they'll perform about the same as they did last year because their supporting cast isn't all that compelling. Westbrook looks like he might take another leap forward though, perhaps as a more efficient scoring threat, and that would be a pretty significant change. We'll see. They'll be good again, and they're a young team as well, so experience alone will do a lot for them. I'll be watching Durant pretty carefully as far as seeing what he can add to his scoring repertoire when his shot isn't falling from outside, etc, etc. I want to see him develop his in-between game, make it a little more diverse, but the Thunder definitely have a bright future.
San Antonio is pinning its hopes on exactly two things:
1) Tiago Splitter
They're hoping he can come in and really give them quality minutes to take some pressure off of their Big 3 and really help them get back to the kind of defense they had back when Duncan was younger and they still had Bowen. Naturally, they'll look to him to take some offensive pressure off, rebound the ball, all that jazz. Maybe 1a) is them looking for what George Hill can do.
2) Tim Duncan
This is the important one, and I don't mean it in the broad sense. Duncan's 15 pounds lighter than he was at this time last year, rested up some, healthy, hoping he can stay that way for most of the season after flirting with plantar fasciitis and other foot/knee-related injuries and problems the past few seasons. If he's healthy, they have a shot still because he's still an 18/10 player who plays good D and shows up stronger in the playoffs (20/10, basically).
There isn't much else to say; they won 50 games last year, they beat the Mavs and were swept by the Suns. I suspect they'll win a few more games because Phoenix will fall off and they have a shot at the conference finals. I doubt San Antonio has what it takes to beat the Lakers. Richard Jefferson was a bad fit and a big disappointment, DaJuan Blair was not... Tony Parker is an expiring contract, and it is possible (if unlikely) that the Spurs try to move him. The Spurs are a long-shot to be a real competitor.
Utah? Al Jefferson instead of Carlos Boozer, hmm. Similar rebounders, Jefferson's a better isolation scorer and similar on defense. Kirilenko is an expiring, so that's a potential mid-season deal right there. They were a 53-win team, and they still have Deron and a 20/10 big, plus Okur should be healthy eventually, they've still got Millsap and they've got a useful guard corp, even if it isn't a star-studded one. And who knows? Maybe Gordon Hayward will be good! They've also added Raja Bell who, while old and declining, should still be able to defend in-system and space the floor with his shooting. I figure another 52- to 55-win season and a strong playoff run, likely ending against L.A. in the second round. Maybe the conference finals, they're pretty good.
Denver. Controversy and drama with Melo! A sick coach who missed the playoffs last year! The Nuggets aren't exactly headed into the season with stability, and this isn't a team that's well-poised and collected to begin with (JR Smith, I'm looking at you...). Martin's injured, Melo's had two injured seasons, Nene's likely to BE injured again (given his history), Ty Lawson played 65 games... It's no small wonder that these guys had some trouble, particularly with Dantley "coaching" them in their series against Utah. Great regular season offense, sub-par defense. Smith sucked in the playoffs even while Melo played a great series. This team needs better structure and direction. And health. If Melo's healthy, this is a team that could win 60 games; they won 53 last year anyhow with Melo playing in only 69 games and struggling with his scoring efficiency (mostly finishing at the rim, but also his 3pt shot). They need Martin to be healthy-ish, as well. Otherwise, they'll flame out in the first or second round again.
And that brings us to the Mavericks, the team I consider the second-best choice to come out of the West... for whatever that's actually worth.
Dallas still has Dirk, but their only major change from last year was to change their rotation from Dampier (and a partial season from Haywood) to Haywood/Chandler. They'll have a full season from Caron Butler, with whom they went 20-7 at the end of the year. Unfortunately, they still have Jason Terry, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion.
Matrix was completely useless in the first round loss to San Antonio, Jason Terry shot under 36% from UNDER the arc (whole shooting 40% from 3), which is common for him. Terry is a low-effectiveness kind of player, super-streaky and very unreliable. He was anti-clutch in the Finals against the Heat (and, with Josh Howard, the real reason the Mavs don't have a championship banner) and he's still featured prominently in their offense, which isn't a good thing.
Worse, though, is that they still have Jason Kidd, who was so bad against San Antonio it hurt my BRAIN. Kidd is a poor scoring threat to begin with, and too old and slow (especially post-surgery) to be super-effective at anything but hitting set, open 3s any more. Against San Antonio, he was putrid. He looked like that old guy at the gym who used to know how to play but finally fell off the edge and can't do it anymore. He was fine in the regular season, then just completely disappeared as a non-factor in the playoffs.
And that means it's up to Dirk and the center position, which does not include a second scoring threat. Dirk was outstanding against San Antonio. The Mavs need a second playmaker very, very badly. Butler looked pretty good in the San Antonio series as a scorer, even though he couldn't hit from downtown; it wasn't the most efficient or pretty thing I've ever seen but he got it done. But when Dirk is your second-best passer, then you've got a problem, and that's not a sleight towards Nowitzki; the Dallas perimeter needs an upgrade, badly.
So this is a little preview of the season as it stands right now. Things will change, trades will be made, injuries will occur and 7 months from now, but by and large, I think we all realize we're looking at an L.A. vs Boston/Miami Finals series barring catastrophe for one of those three teams. The Western Conference playoffs should be a treat to watch, but unless Kobe falls off into decline more sharply than projected (and it isn't off-set by the acquisition of Blake and Barnes), then I don't see L.A. failing to make the Finals. Winning, that's another story, but the Western Conference doesn't look like it'll be a huge stress-test for the Lakers.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Updates Galore
Alright, it's time to get this thing going properly.
The Restricted Zone has been down for almost a year, but it's coming back. I will begin regular updates for this blog this week, and I will not be alone; this time around, TRZ will feature 3-5 regular contributors (including myself), which should help keep content flowing. We've got some solid plans, but let's get some regular content first, right?
Next post will be out later today at some point.
The Restricted Zone has been down for almost a year, but it's coming back. I will begin regular updates for this blog this week, and I will not be alone; this time around, TRZ will feature 3-5 regular contributors (including myself), which should help keep content flowing. We've got some solid plans, but let's get some regular content first, right?
Next post will be out later today at some point.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Updates, Updates
OK, so basketball season has returned. Or near to it, anyway. I didn't post through the playoffs or the off-season because I've been busy, but I'm back now and updates are to follow.
This post won't be much of anything, but in our next edition, I'll start off by having a look at the Raptors and then taking a quick peek at the teams I look at as the big contenders going into the 2009/2010 season. Not a lot of revelations there, but it should be fun!
This post won't be much of anything, but in our next edition, I'll start off by having a look at the Raptors and then taking a quick peek at the teams I look at as the big contenders going into the 2009/2010 season. Not a lot of revelations there, but it should be fun!
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Dikembe Mutombo
What else is there to be said that has not already been said? Deke was Deke, and he will be missed. One of the greatest defenders of all-time, certainly among the greatest philanthropists in the annals of NBA history, great teammate, workhorse, a guy who showed time and again that he still had the juice...
It shouldn't have ended this way. It shouldn't have ended with an injury, but with a decision. It shouldn't have ended without a ring. Even if the Rockets win it this year, it won't be the real deal for Deke because he won't have been able to step on the floor in the Finals, cherishing every moment. He won't be there to grab that last rebound like he did against the Sonics. This is a crime, Fate robbing Mutombo of what he rightly deserves for the efforts he has put into his career and into the world. How many players can say they've put nearly $20 million of their own money into building a hospital in their hometown? How many of them have touched the lives of so many with such meaning?
How many players ever truly develop the distinction and personality that he has, despite or perhaps because he's nigh-unintelligible 75% of the time because of his inimitable voice?
Dikembe Mutombo wasn't a player in the NBA, he was an NBA institution, and his absence is a loss felt keenly around the league.
He will be missed.
:wavefinger:
One more time, Deke...
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Jordan to James - A Decade Later
Hey folks, here's an entry from the other blogger on this site, Mackie Hilborn!
“Before me there were many, after me there will be none, I am the one.” This Jay-Z quote not only rhymes and makes my head bob, but it exemplifies everything that was and is Michael Jordan to the game of basketball. From Russell and Wilt, to Magic, Bird and Kareem, before Jordan there were many exceptional superstars. However, in 1998 when MJ left the game of basketball (he was never the same in Washington), he left behind a legacy that has left the NBA community in a state of disarray.
With each generation of players, there are superstars that leave behind a legacy that forever changes the way the game is played and sold. Jordan’s legacy is second to none. His accolades speak for themselves; in 14 NBA seasons, MJ accumulated 6 championships, 11 MVP trophies, ten All-NBA First Team designations, nine All-Defensive First Team honours, fourteen All-star game appearances and he even won Defensive Player of the Year in 1988. But it’s not just his basketball accomplishments that made Michael such a legendary sports icon. It was also the marketing efforts of MJ on a global scale that went into publicizing his accomplishment that has created the modern day media-frenzy NBA environment. From 1984 until 1998, NBA basketball and Air Jordan were one in the same. From an on-court perspective, what followed MJ was a plethora of high flying Jordan imitators who lacked the fundamentals that made Jordan such an effective player. From Carter and McGrady, to Iverson, Arenas and Richardson, every young athletic swingman with an ounce of potential was labeled as the next Jordan. But it was the same old story, they were all flash and no substance, and they all fell painfully short of living up to the expectations. Jordan had spoiled us, and perhaps we’ve now set the bar too high.
Although MJ has done so much to impact the game’s popularity, television ratings have subsequently lowered every year since his departure. “I never really knew that the talent that I possessed meant so much to people until I walked away.” said Jordan is 1996, after returning from a 2 year stint in the Major Leagues. And it’s true, Air Jordan took the NBA community by storm, and since his retirement we’ve been holding our breath, waiting for someone else we can point to and say “He’s the greatest.”
But there remains hope, and his name is LeBron James.
No player has ever entered the NBA with as much hype as LeBron James. Even as a rookie in High School NBA scouts were drooling over his potential. They saw a player with such a rare combination of size and skill, that they had no choice but to hype him beyond the realm of possibility. However, sure enough after being selected with the 1st overall in the 2003 NBA draft by the Cleveland Cavaliers, only four years later James (at age 22) had his undermanned Cleveland Cavaliers fighting for a championship in the NBA finals. (Jordan didn’t reach the finals until he was 29). Somehow, he had surpassed unsurpassable expectations as the next greatest basketball player in the world. I’ve never seen a player of LeBron’s size be able to move with such quickness and fluidity. He’s a man among boys, a Knight among soldiers… a King among commoners. The Cavs did not win the championship in 2007, but James gave the world a glimmer of hope. It was just the tip of the iceberg, and now James has no choice but to live up to the expectations once again.
Let’s cut to the chase and outline what makes James so incredibly gifted. For one, it’s his size; James stands 6’9 tall and weights in at a ‘lean’ 260 lbs. That’s enormous for a player whose skill set resembles that of an elite point guard; and when watching him play I’m convinced his body was biogenetically engineered to play basketball. James is simple an unstoppable force. But what’s more impressive is his athleticism; LeBron is extremely quick for his size, and very strong. I remember watching his first professional game against the Sacramento Kings (when he casually dropped 25 points, 9 board, 7 dimes and 4 steals on 60% from the floor), in the 1st half, James sliced through the defense and drove to the basket. A split second later he was in the paint and Brad Miller (a big and strong center who’s known for throwing his weight around) shied away when he realized the sheer size and power of an 18 year old James. It was at that moment that NBA fans from across the globe understood that he wasn’t like every other touted prospect since Jordan; King James is much more than that. He’s the real deal.
James also has very good hands, and great basketball instinct. There isn’t a significant flaw in his game, but that’s not to say he is perfect. The form on his jump shot is somewhat awkward, and he hasn’t developed much of a mid range game. But as of right now, in his 6th NBA season and at the ripe age of 24, James has his Cavaliers with the best record in the NBA heading into the final 2 weeks of the season, and statistically he’s on pace to finish with the 3rd best PER in NBA history (Take one guess at which former player holds the top 2 slots). To lay it out, he’s (roughly) averaging 28 point, 8 boards, 7 dimes, 2 steals and 1 block on 49% FG, 34% 3PT and 78% FT shooting, all in just 37 minutes of play. The last player to put up a stat-line of that magnitude while leading his team to 60 or more wins was… well you get the picture.
Offensively James is a force to be reckoned with. What makes him such a nightmare to guard is that he is too big for an average defender, and too fast for a larger one, and he’s extremely skilled and durable. He can also shoot over top of any defender brave enough to take him on, and his unselfishness makes him a nightmare for other teams to try and double or triple team. He can finish at the rim, and he knows when to shoot and when to pass. The scariest part – the part that separates him from the rest of the best - is that while using his size and skill to score buckets, King James also has the type of court vision that is only shared by a handful of NBA players, past or present. His basketball IQ is through the roof. As a small forward who averages nearly 30 points per game, James consistently finishes in the top ten players for assists per game average. He is leading the Cavaliers in an NBA-best four regulatory statistical categories; points, assists, rebounds, and steals. That is something even Jordan never accomplished.
He’s no slough on the other side of the court, either. Defensively LeBron can be stifling, using his large size and quick feet to stay in front of opponents and smother them with athleticism. He also has a tendency to stay out of foul trouble, and he uses his length to quickly cover a lot of ground as a help defender. LeBron also cleans up well around the basket, pulling in a career average of 7.0 rebounds per game. He’s a tenacious man-to-man defender, an excellent help defender, and a very good defensive rebounder. It’s no wonder the Cavs are 1st in the league in points allowed per game and 2nd in opponent field goal percentage. In a nutshell, at age 24 King James is already the best basketball player on the planet… and he’s still improving.
The criterion that really separates the great players from the legends is the intangibles and James has proven that he possesses a lot of them. He’s proven that he has the ability to lead his team. In the 2007 playoffs, James scored 29 points in the forth quarter against the most poised team of the decade in the Detroit Pistons, and led his underdog Cavs past the Pistons and into the finals. He’s proven that he has the ability to make his teammates better, too. Mo Williams, a career 44.9% field goal shooter, is shooting 46.6% from the field in his first season with the Cavs. Williams’s 3pt percentage has also gone up by five percent and he made his first all-star game this season. Lastly, James knows how to strike fear into the heart of his opponents. In 2006, James told his rival, Gilbert Arenas, that he wouldn’t make the game tying free throws in a crucial playoff game against the Wizards. Surely enough, Arenas missed both shots, and the Cavs went on to win the game and subsequently, the series.
It would be impossible to forget what Michael Jordan’s has done for the game of basketball. But it’s been a decade now since he last laced up his Nike’s for the Bulls, and the NBA community as a whole is still waiting for a player to sweep us off our feet. With an era of wing player who’ve failed to live up to the high expectations set by Michael, we’ve finally been blessed with a player capable of surpassing his legacy. The odds are still not in his favour, but LeBron James does possess the key elements that make up a truly great player, and with a bit of luck, he could vary well overcome Jordan’s accomplishments. Those who were able to watch Jordan throughout his entire career (including his glory days at North Carolina) are lucky. However, records are made to be broken, and with this new generation of media-frenzy fans, they want nothing more than to watch first hand as a player climbs up to the top of the Greatest of All-Time list. They’re hungry for greatness and James has what it takes to feed them. He is about to win his first MVP and has his Cavaliers in a position to possibly win a championship this season. It’s one of the biggest mountains to climb, but King James has what it takes to do it. Now only time will tell who will retire as the greatest player to wear the number 23.
“Before me there were many, after me there will be none, I am the one.” This Jay-Z quote not only rhymes and makes my head bob, but it exemplifies everything that was and is Michael Jordan to the game of basketball. From Russell and Wilt, to Magic, Bird and Kareem, before Jordan there were many exceptional superstars. However, in 1998 when MJ left the game of basketball (he was never the same in Washington), he left behind a legacy that has left the NBA community in a state of disarray.
With each generation of players, there are superstars that leave behind a legacy that forever changes the way the game is played and sold. Jordan’s legacy is second to none. His accolades speak for themselves; in 14 NBA seasons, MJ accumulated 6 championships, 11 MVP trophies, ten All-NBA First Team designations, nine All-Defensive First Team honours, fourteen All-star game appearances and he even won Defensive Player of the Year in 1988. But it’s not just his basketball accomplishments that made Michael such a legendary sports icon. It was also the marketing efforts of MJ on a global scale that went into publicizing his accomplishment that has created the modern day media-frenzy NBA environment. From 1984 until 1998, NBA basketball and Air Jordan were one in the same. From an on-court perspective, what followed MJ was a plethora of high flying Jordan imitators who lacked the fundamentals that made Jordan such an effective player. From Carter and McGrady, to Iverson, Arenas and Richardson, every young athletic swingman with an ounce of potential was labeled as the next Jordan. But it was the same old story, they were all flash and no substance, and they all fell painfully short of living up to the expectations. Jordan had spoiled us, and perhaps we’ve now set the bar too high.
Although MJ has done so much to impact the game’s popularity, television ratings have subsequently lowered every year since his departure. “I never really knew that the talent that I possessed meant so much to people until I walked away.” said Jordan is 1996, after returning from a 2 year stint in the Major Leagues. And it’s true, Air Jordan took the NBA community by storm, and since his retirement we’ve been holding our breath, waiting for someone else we can point to and say “He’s the greatest.”
But there remains hope, and his name is LeBron James.
No player has ever entered the NBA with as much hype as LeBron James. Even as a rookie in High School NBA scouts were drooling over his potential. They saw a player with such a rare combination of size and skill, that they had no choice but to hype him beyond the realm of possibility. However, sure enough after being selected with the 1st overall in the 2003 NBA draft by the Cleveland Cavaliers, only four years later James (at age 22) had his undermanned Cleveland Cavaliers fighting for a championship in the NBA finals. (Jordan didn’t reach the finals until he was 29). Somehow, he had surpassed unsurpassable expectations as the next greatest basketball player in the world. I’ve never seen a player of LeBron’s size be able to move with such quickness and fluidity. He’s a man among boys, a Knight among soldiers… a King among commoners. The Cavs did not win the championship in 2007, but James gave the world a glimmer of hope. It was just the tip of the iceberg, and now James has no choice but to live up to the expectations once again.
Let’s cut to the chase and outline what makes James so incredibly gifted. For one, it’s his size; James stands 6’9 tall and weights in at a ‘lean’ 260 lbs. That’s enormous for a player whose skill set resembles that of an elite point guard; and when watching him play I’m convinced his body was biogenetically engineered to play basketball. James is simple an unstoppable force. But what’s more impressive is his athleticism; LeBron is extremely quick for his size, and very strong. I remember watching his first professional game against the Sacramento Kings (when he casually dropped 25 points, 9 board, 7 dimes and 4 steals on 60% from the floor), in the 1st half, James sliced through the defense and drove to the basket. A split second later he was in the paint and Brad Miller (a big and strong center who’s known for throwing his weight around) shied away when he realized the sheer size and power of an 18 year old James. It was at that moment that NBA fans from across the globe understood that he wasn’t like every other touted prospect since Jordan; King James is much more than that. He’s the real deal.
James also has very good hands, and great basketball instinct. There isn’t a significant flaw in his game, but that’s not to say he is perfect. The form on his jump shot is somewhat awkward, and he hasn’t developed much of a mid range game. But as of right now, in his 6th NBA season and at the ripe age of 24, James has his Cavaliers with the best record in the NBA heading into the final 2 weeks of the season, and statistically he’s on pace to finish with the 3rd best PER in NBA history (Take one guess at which former player holds the top 2 slots). To lay it out, he’s (roughly) averaging 28 point, 8 boards, 7 dimes, 2 steals and 1 block on 49% FG, 34% 3PT and 78% FT shooting, all in just 37 minutes of play. The last player to put up a stat-line of that magnitude while leading his team to 60 or more wins was… well you get the picture.
Offensively James is a force to be reckoned with. What makes him such a nightmare to guard is that he is too big for an average defender, and too fast for a larger one, and he’s extremely skilled and durable. He can also shoot over top of any defender brave enough to take him on, and his unselfishness makes him a nightmare for other teams to try and double or triple team. He can finish at the rim, and he knows when to shoot and when to pass. The scariest part – the part that separates him from the rest of the best - is that while using his size and skill to score buckets, King James also has the type of court vision that is only shared by a handful of NBA players, past or present. His basketball IQ is through the roof. As a small forward who averages nearly 30 points per game, James consistently finishes in the top ten players for assists per game average. He is leading the Cavaliers in an NBA-best four regulatory statistical categories; points, assists, rebounds, and steals. That is something even Jordan never accomplished.
He’s no slough on the other side of the court, either. Defensively LeBron can be stifling, using his large size and quick feet to stay in front of opponents and smother them with athleticism. He also has a tendency to stay out of foul trouble, and he uses his length to quickly cover a lot of ground as a help defender. LeBron also cleans up well around the basket, pulling in a career average of 7.0 rebounds per game. He’s a tenacious man-to-man defender, an excellent help defender, and a very good defensive rebounder. It’s no wonder the Cavs are 1st in the league in points allowed per game and 2nd in opponent field goal percentage. In a nutshell, at age 24 King James is already the best basketball player on the planet… and he’s still improving.
The criterion that really separates the great players from the legends is the intangibles and James has proven that he possesses a lot of them. He’s proven that he has the ability to lead his team. In the 2007 playoffs, James scored 29 points in the forth quarter against the most poised team of the decade in the Detroit Pistons, and led his underdog Cavs past the Pistons and into the finals. He’s proven that he has the ability to make his teammates better, too. Mo Williams, a career 44.9% field goal shooter, is shooting 46.6% from the field in his first season with the Cavs. Williams’s 3pt percentage has also gone up by five percent and he made his first all-star game this season. Lastly, James knows how to strike fear into the heart of his opponents. In 2006, James told his rival, Gilbert Arenas, that he wouldn’t make the game tying free throws in a crucial playoff game against the Wizards. Surely enough, Arenas missed both shots, and the Cavs went on to win the game and subsequently, the series.
It would be impossible to forget what Michael Jordan’s has done for the game of basketball. But it’s been a decade now since he last laced up his Nike’s for the Bulls, and the NBA community as a whole is still waiting for a player to sweep us off our feet. With an era of wing player who’ve failed to live up to the high expectations set by Michael, we’ve finally been blessed with a player capable of surpassing his legacy. The odds are still not in his favour, but LeBron James does possess the key elements that make up a truly great player, and with a bit of luck, he could vary well overcome Jordan’s accomplishments. Those who were able to watch Jordan throughout his entire career (including his glory days at North Carolina) are lucky. However, records are made to be broken, and with this new generation of media-frenzy fans, they want nothing more than to watch first hand as a player climbs up to the top of the Greatest of All-Time list. They’re hungry for greatness and James has what it takes to feed them. He is about to win his first MVP and has his Cavaliers in a position to possibly win a championship this season. It’s one of the biggest mountains to climb, but King James has what it takes to do it. Now only time will tell who will retire as the greatest player to wear the number 23.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Tracking Individual Defense
Sunday evening, I began a new basketball project: tracking individual defensive stats for the Toronto Raptors. It began in the loosest of senses when I attended the Raps/Pacers game on the 15th, spilled over to the stat boards, continued on with the Thunder game and then at last took legitimate form as I watched the Raptors outlast the Bulls in an overtime game this past Sunday.
Borrowing liberally from a study begun by Schuyler Davis; some of his work is published over at basketball-statistics.com. The basic method is, at least for now, strikingly similar to the one Mr. Davis used. The details of his method can be found at Basketball-Statistics.com, here. Essentially, I looked at a host of defensive events discretely and recorded when a player either failed notably or played especially good defense. Average events were not recorded, nor would one person be reasonably capable of recording all of those anyway, bearing in mind that there are basically five defensive events happening on every possession. It is worth mentioning that though I performed a trial chart against the Thunder, this was my first full-game chart. There are assuredly many errors, and some subjective judgments that need to be refined and clarified for the next time that I chart a game. It is also true that I am working on finding a more objective way to quantify the results of the game, but in the meantime, the collection of this raw data is an important step to better understanding individual and team defense in a more effective manner than we do now, especially given how clumsy most defensive metrics are.
In any case, I will continue to refine the process as I go along, but for now, the results were still interesting. Bearing in mind that they represent a single-game (and thus very small) sample, the numbers did at least match with the general consensus of Raptors fans: Jose Calderon is not a good defender. Beyond that, the Raptors appeared to play decent defense and the Bulls hit a lot of contested shots (Ben Gordon in particular).
In the first half, Toronto sent Chris Bosh over to help every time Rose got a screen up at the top of the circle and that kept him in check, but once Ben Gordon started putting pressure on the Raptors (he scored only 9 of his 37 points in the first half and only 18 after three quarters), Bosh had other concerns to worry about and Rose was free to attack Calderon in isolation, a matchup decidedly in Chicago’s favor. Rose himself had only 7 of his 23 points after three quarters and erupted on Toronto thereafter. The guard play of the Bulls was nearly too much for Toronto to handle and Chicago’s offense was quite potent, outscoring the Raptors by 13 in the fourth quarter, only to let things slip away in OT because of Rose’s missed layup and the general ineptitude of Tyrus Thomas, who bricked a 16-footer and a 19-footer, his only contributions to the OT period besides a defensive rebound.
Returning to the defensive stats, I was looking at a series of specific events. In particular, I tracked isolation defensive coverage, pick-and-rolls, help rotations/recoveries, contested defensive rebounds and transition defense. In the case of all but the latter, I tracked a positive and negative category. With transition defense, since the opportunities for positive events were so prolific, I only tracked negative events and there were very few, mostly because a player got fouled with no call and fell down (or flopped and fell down) and the Raps were short-handed as a result.
The biggest problem, I found, was choosing whether to record pick-and-roll coverages by the help defender in the pick-and-roll category or the help rotation category. I unconsciously recorded several such events in different columns, so that is definitely something I have to fix the next time around by making a clear choice one way or the other.
The second biggest problem was determining how much was coaching strategy and how much was the players themselves. Before the game, Coach Triano did talk a little about how he planned to play Derrick Rose and you could see it in the first half before Ben Gordon disabused them of the notion that focusing on Rose and not him was the best plan. Once both got going, well, the Raptors couldn’t really do anything because they have but two players who are decent perimeter defenders against guys under 6’5 and those are Parker and Roko. Both did a reasonable job, but it’s difficult to contain that kind of athleticism without a shot-blocker, so we got to see the upside of running two small, athletic guards against a defensive line such as Toronto fielded. The Raptors seemed to design their possessions to that Marion tried to guard Rose, but that was a mistake, and one not much better than if Calderon had been left on Rose. Bosh found himself guarding Gordon in isolation sets repeatedly in the second half and as you can see, that did not work out well at all, though on the possession where Gordon tied the game at the regulation buzzer, Bosh had indeed played him well straight up; Gordon just hit a long J in his face.
So, the basic assumption that Calderon is a poor individual defender was borne out. The demise of Anthony Parker’s defense seems a little presumptuous after watching that game and the Raptors as a team didn’t look bad on many possessions. It was rather stunning to see that in such a high-scoring game, the player doing the most damage was doing it in spite of the defense as opposed to on account of its absence. The Raptors dominated the glass, holding advantages at either end of the floor but the Bulls hit a lot of long jumpers until basically the fourth quarter and overtime, at which point the combined scoring threat of Gordon and Rose was too much for the defense to handle and the lead, as much as 17 points in the fourth quarter, wilted with incredible alacrity.
This proved to be an interesting exercise. As the project progresses, it’ll be interesting to establish a baseline performance level for each of the Raptors players and to be able to compare their performance against specific kinds of offense and see where the Raptors strengths and weaknesses lie in a more particular sense than “athletic guards with jumpers and power-post players,” as is essentially the case for all but the most elite defensive squads. After that, it’ll become interesting to see how effectively this data can be applied to player assessment models and perhaps some kind of “alternate box score” rating metric, perhaps.
Until next time.
Borrowing liberally from a study begun by Schuyler Davis; some of his work is published over at basketball-statistics.com. The basic method is, at least for now, strikingly similar to the one Mr. Davis used. The details of his method can be found at Basketball-Statistics.com, here. Essentially, I looked at a host of defensive events discretely and recorded when a player either failed notably or played especially good defense. Average events were not recorded, nor would one person be reasonably capable of recording all of those anyway, bearing in mind that there are basically five defensive events happening on every possession. It is worth mentioning that though I performed a trial chart against the Thunder, this was my first full-game chart. There are assuredly many errors, and some subjective judgments that need to be refined and clarified for the next time that I chart a game. It is also true that I am working on finding a more objective way to quantify the results of the game, but in the meantime, the collection of this raw data is an important step to better understanding individual and team defense in a more effective manner than we do now, especially given how clumsy most defensive metrics are.
In any case, I will continue to refine the process as I go along, but for now, the results were still interesting. Bearing in mind that they represent a single-game (and thus very small) sample, the numbers did at least match with the general consensus of Raptors fans: Jose Calderon is not a good defender. Beyond that, the Raptors appeared to play decent defense and the Bulls hit a lot of contested shots (Ben Gordon in particular).
In the first half, Toronto sent Chris Bosh over to help every time Rose got a screen up at the top of the circle and that kept him in check, but once Ben Gordon started putting pressure on the Raptors (he scored only 9 of his 37 points in the first half and only 18 after three quarters), Bosh had other concerns to worry about and Rose was free to attack Calderon in isolation, a matchup decidedly in Chicago’s favor. Rose himself had only 7 of his 23 points after three quarters and erupted on Toronto thereafter. The guard play of the Bulls was nearly too much for Toronto to handle and Chicago’s offense was quite potent, outscoring the Raptors by 13 in the fourth quarter, only to let things slip away in OT because of Rose’s missed layup and the general ineptitude of Tyrus Thomas, who bricked a 16-footer and a 19-footer, his only contributions to the OT period besides a defensive rebound.
Returning to the defensive stats, I was looking at a series of specific events. In particular, I tracked isolation defensive coverage, pick-and-rolls, help rotations/recoveries, contested defensive rebounds and transition defense. In the case of all but the latter, I tracked a positive and negative category. With transition defense, since the opportunities for positive events were so prolific, I only tracked negative events and there were very few, mostly because a player got fouled with no call and fell down (or flopped and fell down) and the Raps were short-handed as a result.
The biggest problem, I found, was choosing whether to record pick-and-roll coverages by the help defender in the pick-and-roll category or the help rotation category. I unconsciously recorded several such events in different columns, so that is definitely something I have to fix the next time around by making a clear choice one way or the other.
The second biggest problem was determining how much was coaching strategy and how much was the players themselves. Before the game, Coach Triano did talk a little about how he planned to play Derrick Rose and you could see it in the first half before Ben Gordon disabused them of the notion that focusing on Rose and not him was the best plan. Once both got going, well, the Raptors couldn’t really do anything because they have but two players who are decent perimeter defenders against guys under 6’5 and those are Parker and Roko. Both did a reasonable job, but it’s difficult to contain that kind of athleticism without a shot-blocker, so we got to see the upside of running two small, athletic guards against a defensive line such as Toronto fielded. The Raptors seemed to design their possessions to that Marion tried to guard Rose, but that was a mistake, and one not much better than if Calderon had been left on Rose. Bosh found himself guarding Gordon in isolation sets repeatedly in the second half and as you can see, that did not work out well at all, though on the possession where Gordon tied the game at the regulation buzzer, Bosh had indeed played him well straight up; Gordon just hit a long J in his face.
So, the basic assumption that Calderon is a poor individual defender was borne out. The demise of Anthony Parker’s defense seems a little presumptuous after watching that game and the Raptors as a team didn’t look bad on many possessions. It was rather stunning to see that in such a high-scoring game, the player doing the most damage was doing it in spite of the defense as opposed to on account of its absence. The Raptors dominated the glass, holding advantages at either end of the floor but the Bulls hit a lot of long jumpers until basically the fourth quarter and overtime, at which point the combined scoring threat of Gordon and Rose was too much for the defense to handle and the lead, as much as 17 points in the fourth quarter, wilted with incredible alacrity.
This proved to be an interesting exercise. As the project progresses, it’ll be interesting to establish a baseline performance level for each of the Raptors players and to be able to compare their performance against specific kinds of offense and see where the Raptors strengths and weaknesses lie in a more particular sense than “athletic guards with jumpers and power-post players,” as is essentially the case for all but the most elite defensive squads. After that, it’ll become interesting to see how effectively this data can be applied to player assessment models and perhaps some kind of “alternate box score” rating metric, perhaps.
Until next time.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
SSOS
So it's time for a new post. Actually, it's past time for a new post, but we'll ignore that.
Today's topic is the Phoenix Suns.
There is a great deal to say about what has passed before, so I'm going to ignore all of that for now. Instead, I'm going to focus on a couple of more immediate things, mostly the Orlando game and what's coming up in Miami.
It was clear that Steve Nash needed to rest more; Shaq looked a lot better when Nash wasn't messing around and turning the ball over; an A:T ratio of nearly 1:1 is terrible for Nash, especially because the Suns can't afford those turnovers on account of their poor defense. In any case, Nash had a decidedly unusual game, particularly in the second half; his ankle was still bothering him, it must have been, because he was so tentative. There was one play where he drove, had a point-blank layup and elected to pass through traffic out to Jason Richardson, who fortunately hit the three.
The Suns lost this game mainly because they did a terrible job of guarding Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, both of whom torched the team (Rashard had 11 points in the fourth quarter alone and had a great night on the glass, too). One might also point a finger at how Rafer was getting into the paint, drawing fouls and hitting the three-point shooters very well and criticize Nash, but it was his first game back from a mobility injury, so it would be fruitless.
But why did I bring up this game? It's done and past, right? Nash was busting chemistry because he came back too early and the game was winnable but for a few miscues and a really rough 3rd quarter. There were a few notable aspects of the game that were problematic for the Suns.
The first of these was finishing on the break; this wasn't a critical failure on their part but Grant Hill missed a couple of what should have been gimme-layups coming from the right side (not his favorite side) and the Suns really didn't have anyone to work with on the break that could finish. As a corollary to this, Nash didn't have his favorite play available to him, the high sidescreen.
When Amare's in the game (or in Dallas, Dirk), Nash loves to catch a screen on the wing, and work from there. It's a very effective play, but more importantly, while it creates a lot of options (ball-handler drives, pass to the roll, pass to the pop, pass to the wing, pass to a cutter), it's also a very fast-developing play. And it's his bread-and-butter. This is what has made Nash so effective. He could run it with Amare, he could run it with Diaw...
He can't run it all that often with Shaq, nor can he do all that much with it if he's running it with whichever of Barnes or Hill happens to be running small at the 4. Amundson isn't super-effective in this play either.
The other major areas where the Suns were noticeably lacking are rebounding and help defense. Now, in this particular game, the Suns were only -1 on the glass, largely because Shaq grabbed 6 offensive rebounds, but the point is they couldn't put down an advantage in the rebounding column. In April 2007,The Painted Area published an interesting blog post that noted that only two teams had ever won a title with a negative rebounding margin (the Rockets title squads of the mid-90s) and in the last 20 years, every title squad had at least a rebounding margin of +1.0. Only two other teams besides those Rockets squads even made the Finals with a negative rebounding margin.
Right now, the Suns are at about 0.99, so they've improved their rebounding from back in the D'Antoni days, thanks to Shaq's presence. But now they're missing what they had then, which was roughly acceptable perimeter defense on account of Marion's versatility. Kevin Pelton added to this in a comment to the follow-up post on The Painted Area in January of this year:
"The average champion over your original timespan (1987-2006) is 4.2 percent better than league average on the offensive glass and 1.7 percent better on the defensive glass."
The Suns, for the record, are currently 24th in the league in total team offensive rebounds. They're tops in the league in team eFG% and they're 5th in FTM/FGA; their offense is generally pretty good, but they're a little below league average in offensive rebounding, which doesn't square with Pelton's comment about NBA champions in that specific timeframe. They're also 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage.
So, getting to my long-winded point, while the Suns have improved on the glass, they're still not doing a good enough job.
Beyond this, they also don't have a lot of help defense; Shaq's doing a pretty decent job down low preventing post scorers from having career nights every time they face the Suns, but he was never a dominant shot-blocker but for a year or two in his career, just a very good one.
Enter the Suns' newest addition; according to various sources, Stromile Swift has signed with the Suns and will play out the rest of the season with them... and by all accounts I've heard, is likely to become the starting PF for the team, which means he'll probably be seeing 25+ mpg for Phoenix within a games. If these reports are true, he might even be in uniform for the Miami game.
Swift is many things; worth his draft selection in the 2000 draft is not one of them but what he has always brought is strong offensive rebounding, shot-blocking and athleticism. He's 6'9 or 6'10, and has a wingspan of about 7'3. He's pretty strong and does a decent job of single coverage in the post. He's an outstanding transition finisher and even in the halfcourt, he moves pretty well without the ball to get dunks from teammates. He's got a decent face-up game with a competent left hand, and some years he's got an acceptable mid-range jumper. Usually, he's also not all that bad at the line, too.
So in one move, the Suns have signed a guy who should really help with a lot of the problems we've just been discussing. It falls to Stro to perform, but you expect that he will because it's a limited role but one in which he can succeed, and it's a contract year.
What does this do for Phoenix?
Well, it makes them a much more significant threat to make the postseason. Even if Stro only matches the production he's managed over his career (about 9/5 and a block, or about 15/8 and 2+ blocks PER36), then you're talking about a guy who is still going to shore up their frontcourt rotation. He's a guy who can give Shaq a rest, who can work well with Nash...
This is probably the best situation into which Swift has ever walked. He's as close to a really poor-man's Amare as you can get, which is exactly what Nash has been missing in Amare's absence this year. This isn't an epic steal like Gasol to the Lakers, but it could prove to be an important transaction as the stretch run begins. Swift has been an efficient player when he has shot over his career. He's not an All-Star in hiding, nor is he going to really even approach replacing what Amare brought to the team offensively, but he'll give Nash that extra option and he'll be another efficient tool for a team that's already shooting a hair over 50% FG as a team, which is dangerous when you consider the defensive and rebounding advantages that he will also bring to the team.
If he's given 25 mpg, I'd expect something like 10 and 6 out of Stro on good percentages, maybe even efficiency greater than usual on account of Nash and Phoenix's offensive system. If he can do that while blocking shots, playing good D and hitting the glass hard, then he's going to do a lot for a team that's looking for a booster shot so they can push for that last playoff spot and take it from Dallas.
Today's topic is the Phoenix Suns.
There is a great deal to say about what has passed before, so I'm going to ignore all of that for now. Instead, I'm going to focus on a couple of more immediate things, mostly the Orlando game and what's coming up in Miami.
It was clear that Steve Nash needed to rest more; Shaq looked a lot better when Nash wasn't messing around and turning the ball over; an A:T ratio of nearly 1:1 is terrible for Nash, especially because the Suns can't afford those turnovers on account of their poor defense. In any case, Nash had a decidedly unusual game, particularly in the second half; his ankle was still bothering him, it must have been, because he was so tentative. There was one play where he drove, had a point-blank layup and elected to pass through traffic out to Jason Richardson, who fortunately hit the three.
The Suns lost this game mainly because they did a terrible job of guarding Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, both of whom torched the team (Rashard had 11 points in the fourth quarter alone and had a great night on the glass, too). One might also point a finger at how Rafer was getting into the paint, drawing fouls and hitting the three-point shooters very well and criticize Nash, but it was his first game back from a mobility injury, so it would be fruitless.
But why did I bring up this game? It's done and past, right? Nash was busting chemistry because he came back too early and the game was winnable but for a few miscues and a really rough 3rd quarter. There were a few notable aspects of the game that were problematic for the Suns.
The first of these was finishing on the break; this wasn't a critical failure on their part but Grant Hill missed a couple of what should have been gimme-layups coming from the right side (not his favorite side) and the Suns really didn't have anyone to work with on the break that could finish. As a corollary to this, Nash didn't have his favorite play available to him, the high sidescreen.
When Amare's in the game (or in Dallas, Dirk), Nash loves to catch a screen on the wing, and work from there. It's a very effective play, but more importantly, while it creates a lot of options (ball-handler drives, pass to the roll, pass to the pop, pass to the wing, pass to a cutter), it's also a very fast-developing play. And it's his bread-and-butter. This is what has made Nash so effective. He could run it with Amare, he could run it with Diaw...
He can't run it all that often with Shaq, nor can he do all that much with it if he's running it with whichever of Barnes or Hill happens to be running small at the 4. Amundson isn't super-effective in this play either.
The other major areas where the Suns were noticeably lacking are rebounding and help defense. Now, in this particular game, the Suns were only -1 on the glass, largely because Shaq grabbed 6 offensive rebounds, but the point is they couldn't put down an advantage in the rebounding column. In April 2007,
Right now, the Suns are at about 0.99, so they've improved their rebounding from back in the D'Antoni days, thanks to Shaq's presence. But now they're missing what they had then, which was roughly acceptable perimeter defense on account of Marion's versatility. Kevin Pelton added to this in a comment to the follow-up post on The Painted Area in January of this year:
"The average champion over your original timespan (1987-2006) is 4.2 percent better than league average on the offensive glass and 1.7 percent better on the defensive glass."
The Suns, for the record, are currently 24th in the league in total team offensive rebounds. They're tops in the league in team eFG% and they're 5th in FTM/FGA; their offense is generally pretty good, but they're a little below league average in offensive rebounding, which doesn't square with Pelton's comment about NBA champions in that specific timeframe. They're also 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage.
So, getting to my long-winded point, while the Suns have improved on the glass, they're still not doing a good enough job.
Beyond this, they also don't have a lot of help defense; Shaq's doing a pretty decent job down low preventing post scorers from having career nights every time they face the Suns, but he was never a dominant shot-blocker but for a year or two in his career, just a very good one.
Enter the Suns' newest addition; according to various sources, Stromile Swift has signed with the Suns and will play out the rest of the season with them... and by all accounts I've heard, is likely to become the starting PF for the team, which means he'll probably be seeing 25+ mpg for Phoenix within a games. If these reports are true, he might even be in uniform for the Miami game.
Swift is many things; worth his draft selection in the 2000 draft is not one of them but what he has always brought is strong offensive rebounding, shot-blocking and athleticism. He's 6'9 or 6'10, and has a wingspan of about 7'3. He's pretty strong and does a decent job of single coverage in the post. He's an outstanding transition finisher and even in the halfcourt, he moves pretty well without the ball to get dunks from teammates. He's got a decent face-up game with a competent left hand, and some years he's got an acceptable mid-range jumper. Usually, he's also not all that bad at the line, too.
So in one move, the Suns have signed a guy who should really help with a lot of the problems we've just been discussing. It falls to Stro to perform, but you expect that he will because it's a limited role but one in which he can succeed, and it's a contract year.
What does this do for Phoenix?
Well, it makes them a much more significant threat to make the postseason. Even if Stro only matches the production he's managed over his career (about 9/5 and a block, or about 15/8 and 2+ blocks PER36), then you're talking about a guy who is still going to shore up their frontcourt rotation. He's a guy who can give Shaq a rest, who can work well with Nash...
This is probably the best situation into which Swift has ever walked. He's as close to a really poor-man's Amare as you can get, which is exactly what Nash has been missing in Amare's absence this year. This isn't an epic steal like Gasol to the Lakers, but it could prove to be an important transaction as the stretch run begins. Swift has been an efficient player when he has shot over his career. He's not an All-Star in hiding, nor is he going to really even approach replacing what Amare brought to the team offensively, but he'll give Nash that extra option and he'll be another efficient tool for a team that's already shooting a hair over 50% FG as a team, which is dangerous when you consider the defensive and rebounding advantages that he will also bring to the team.
If he's given 25 mpg, I'd expect something like 10 and 6 out of Stro on good percentages, maybe even efficiency greater than usual on account of Nash and Phoenix's offensive system. If he can do that while blocking shots, playing good D and hitting the glass hard, then he's going to do a lot for a team that's looking for a booster shot so they can push for that last playoff spot and take it from Dallas.
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