OK, so basketball season has returned. Or near to it, anyway. I didn't post through the playoffs or the off-season because I've been busy, but I'm back now and updates are to follow.
This post won't be much of anything, but in our next edition, I'll start off by having a look at the Raptors and then taking a quick peek at the teams I look at as the big contenders going into the 2009/2010 season. Not a lot of revelations there, but it should be fun!
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Dikembe Mutombo
What else is there to be said that has not already been said? Deke was Deke, and he will be missed. One of the greatest defenders of all-time, certainly among the greatest philanthropists in the annals of NBA history, great teammate, workhorse, a guy who showed time and again that he still had the juice...
It shouldn't have ended this way. It shouldn't have ended with an injury, but with a decision. It shouldn't have ended without a ring. Even if the Rockets win it this year, it won't be the real deal for Deke because he won't have been able to step on the floor in the Finals, cherishing every moment. He won't be there to grab that last rebound like he did against the Sonics. This is a crime, Fate robbing Mutombo of what he rightly deserves for the efforts he has put into his career and into the world. How many players can say they've put nearly $20 million of their own money into building a hospital in their hometown? How many of them have touched the lives of so many with such meaning?
How many players ever truly develop the distinction and personality that he has, despite or perhaps because he's nigh-unintelligible 75% of the time because of his inimitable voice?
Dikembe Mutombo wasn't a player in the NBA, he was an NBA institution, and his absence is a loss felt keenly around the league.
He will be missed.
:wavefinger:
One more time, Deke...
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Jordan to James - A Decade Later
Hey folks, here's an entry from the other blogger on this site, Mackie Hilborn!
“Before me there were many, after me there will be none, I am the one.” This Jay-Z quote not only rhymes and makes my head bob, but it exemplifies everything that was and is Michael Jordan to the game of basketball. From Russell and Wilt, to Magic, Bird and Kareem, before Jordan there were many exceptional superstars. However, in 1998 when MJ left the game of basketball (he was never the same in Washington), he left behind a legacy that has left the NBA community in a state of disarray.
With each generation of players, there are superstars that leave behind a legacy that forever changes the way the game is played and sold. Jordan’s legacy is second to none. His accolades speak for themselves; in 14 NBA seasons, MJ accumulated 6 championships, 11 MVP trophies, ten All-NBA First Team designations, nine All-Defensive First Team honours, fourteen All-star game appearances and he even won Defensive Player of the Year in 1988. But it’s not just his basketball accomplishments that made Michael such a legendary sports icon. It was also the marketing efforts of MJ on a global scale that went into publicizing his accomplishment that has created the modern day media-frenzy NBA environment. From 1984 until 1998, NBA basketball and Air Jordan were one in the same. From an on-court perspective, what followed MJ was a plethora of high flying Jordan imitators who lacked the fundamentals that made Jordan such an effective player. From Carter and McGrady, to Iverson, Arenas and Richardson, every young athletic swingman with an ounce of potential was labeled as the next Jordan. But it was the same old story, they were all flash and no substance, and they all fell painfully short of living up to the expectations. Jordan had spoiled us, and perhaps we’ve now set the bar too high.
Although MJ has done so much to impact the game’s popularity, television ratings have subsequently lowered every year since his departure. “I never really knew that the talent that I possessed meant so much to people until I walked away.” said Jordan is 1996, after returning from a 2 year stint in the Major Leagues. And it’s true, Air Jordan took the NBA community by storm, and since his retirement we’ve been holding our breath, waiting for someone else we can point to and say “He’s the greatest.”
But there remains hope, and his name is LeBron James.
No player has ever entered the NBA with as much hype as LeBron James. Even as a rookie in High School NBA scouts were drooling over his potential. They saw a player with such a rare combination of size and skill, that they had no choice but to hype him beyond the realm of possibility. However, sure enough after being selected with the 1st overall in the 2003 NBA draft by the Cleveland Cavaliers, only four years later James (at age 22) had his undermanned Cleveland Cavaliers fighting for a championship in the NBA finals. (Jordan didn’t reach the finals until he was 29). Somehow, he had surpassed unsurpassable expectations as the next greatest basketball player in the world. I’ve never seen a player of LeBron’s size be able to move with such quickness and fluidity. He’s a man among boys, a Knight among soldiers… a King among commoners. The Cavs did not win the championship in 2007, but James gave the world a glimmer of hope. It was just the tip of the iceberg, and now James has no choice but to live up to the expectations once again.
Let’s cut to the chase and outline what makes James so incredibly gifted. For one, it’s his size; James stands 6’9 tall and weights in at a ‘lean’ 260 lbs. That’s enormous for a player whose skill set resembles that of an elite point guard; and when watching him play I’m convinced his body was biogenetically engineered to play basketball. James is simple an unstoppable force. But what’s more impressive is his athleticism; LeBron is extremely quick for his size, and very strong. I remember watching his first professional game against the Sacramento Kings (when he casually dropped 25 points, 9 board, 7 dimes and 4 steals on 60% from the floor), in the 1st half, James sliced through the defense and drove to the basket. A split second later he was in the paint and Brad Miller (a big and strong center who’s known for throwing his weight around) shied away when he realized the sheer size and power of an 18 year old James. It was at that moment that NBA fans from across the globe understood that he wasn’t like every other touted prospect since Jordan; King James is much more than that. He’s the real deal.
James also has very good hands, and great basketball instinct. There isn’t a significant flaw in his game, but that’s not to say he is perfect. The form on his jump shot is somewhat awkward, and he hasn’t developed much of a mid range game. But as of right now, in his 6th NBA season and at the ripe age of 24, James has his Cavaliers with the best record in the NBA heading into the final 2 weeks of the season, and statistically he’s on pace to finish with the 3rd best PER in NBA history (Take one guess at which former player holds the top 2 slots). To lay it out, he’s (roughly) averaging 28 point, 8 boards, 7 dimes, 2 steals and 1 block on 49% FG, 34% 3PT and 78% FT shooting, all in just 37 minutes of play. The last player to put up a stat-line of that magnitude while leading his team to 60 or more wins was… well you get the picture.
Offensively James is a force to be reckoned with. What makes him such a nightmare to guard is that he is too big for an average defender, and too fast for a larger one, and he’s extremely skilled and durable. He can also shoot over top of any defender brave enough to take him on, and his unselfishness makes him a nightmare for other teams to try and double or triple team. He can finish at the rim, and he knows when to shoot and when to pass. The scariest part – the part that separates him from the rest of the best - is that while using his size and skill to score buckets, King James also has the type of court vision that is only shared by a handful of NBA players, past or present. His basketball IQ is through the roof. As a small forward who averages nearly 30 points per game, James consistently finishes in the top ten players for assists per game average. He is leading the Cavaliers in an NBA-best four regulatory statistical categories; points, assists, rebounds, and steals. That is something even Jordan never accomplished.
He’s no slough on the other side of the court, either. Defensively LeBron can be stifling, using his large size and quick feet to stay in front of opponents and smother them with athleticism. He also has a tendency to stay out of foul trouble, and he uses his length to quickly cover a lot of ground as a help defender. LeBron also cleans up well around the basket, pulling in a career average of 7.0 rebounds per game. He’s a tenacious man-to-man defender, an excellent help defender, and a very good defensive rebounder. It’s no wonder the Cavs are 1st in the league in points allowed per game and 2nd in opponent field goal percentage. In a nutshell, at age 24 King James is already the best basketball player on the planet… and he’s still improving.
The criterion that really separates the great players from the legends is the intangibles and James has proven that he possesses a lot of them. He’s proven that he has the ability to lead his team. In the 2007 playoffs, James scored 29 points in the forth quarter against the most poised team of the decade in the Detroit Pistons, and led his underdog Cavs past the Pistons and into the finals. He’s proven that he has the ability to make his teammates better, too. Mo Williams, a career 44.9% field goal shooter, is shooting 46.6% from the field in his first season with the Cavs. Williams’s 3pt percentage has also gone up by five percent and he made his first all-star game this season. Lastly, James knows how to strike fear into the heart of his opponents. In 2006, James told his rival, Gilbert Arenas, that he wouldn’t make the game tying free throws in a crucial playoff game against the Wizards. Surely enough, Arenas missed both shots, and the Cavs went on to win the game and subsequently, the series.
It would be impossible to forget what Michael Jordan’s has done for the game of basketball. But it’s been a decade now since he last laced up his Nike’s for the Bulls, and the NBA community as a whole is still waiting for a player to sweep us off our feet. With an era of wing player who’ve failed to live up to the high expectations set by Michael, we’ve finally been blessed with a player capable of surpassing his legacy. The odds are still not in his favour, but LeBron James does possess the key elements that make up a truly great player, and with a bit of luck, he could vary well overcome Jordan’s accomplishments. Those who were able to watch Jordan throughout his entire career (including his glory days at North Carolina) are lucky. However, records are made to be broken, and with this new generation of media-frenzy fans, they want nothing more than to watch first hand as a player climbs up to the top of the Greatest of All-Time list. They’re hungry for greatness and James has what it takes to feed them. He is about to win his first MVP and has his Cavaliers in a position to possibly win a championship this season. It’s one of the biggest mountains to climb, but King James has what it takes to do it. Now only time will tell who will retire as the greatest player to wear the number 23.
“Before me there were many, after me there will be none, I am the one.” This Jay-Z quote not only rhymes and makes my head bob, but it exemplifies everything that was and is Michael Jordan to the game of basketball. From Russell and Wilt, to Magic, Bird and Kareem, before Jordan there were many exceptional superstars. However, in 1998 when MJ left the game of basketball (he was never the same in Washington), he left behind a legacy that has left the NBA community in a state of disarray.
With each generation of players, there are superstars that leave behind a legacy that forever changes the way the game is played and sold. Jordan’s legacy is second to none. His accolades speak for themselves; in 14 NBA seasons, MJ accumulated 6 championships, 11 MVP trophies, ten All-NBA First Team designations, nine All-Defensive First Team honours, fourteen All-star game appearances and he even won Defensive Player of the Year in 1988. But it’s not just his basketball accomplishments that made Michael such a legendary sports icon. It was also the marketing efforts of MJ on a global scale that went into publicizing his accomplishment that has created the modern day media-frenzy NBA environment. From 1984 until 1998, NBA basketball and Air Jordan were one in the same. From an on-court perspective, what followed MJ was a plethora of high flying Jordan imitators who lacked the fundamentals that made Jordan such an effective player. From Carter and McGrady, to Iverson, Arenas and Richardson, every young athletic swingman with an ounce of potential was labeled as the next Jordan. But it was the same old story, they were all flash and no substance, and they all fell painfully short of living up to the expectations. Jordan had spoiled us, and perhaps we’ve now set the bar too high.
Although MJ has done so much to impact the game’s popularity, television ratings have subsequently lowered every year since his departure. “I never really knew that the talent that I possessed meant so much to people until I walked away.” said Jordan is 1996, after returning from a 2 year stint in the Major Leagues. And it’s true, Air Jordan took the NBA community by storm, and since his retirement we’ve been holding our breath, waiting for someone else we can point to and say “He’s the greatest.”
But there remains hope, and his name is LeBron James.
No player has ever entered the NBA with as much hype as LeBron James. Even as a rookie in High School NBA scouts were drooling over his potential. They saw a player with such a rare combination of size and skill, that they had no choice but to hype him beyond the realm of possibility. However, sure enough after being selected with the 1st overall in the 2003 NBA draft by the Cleveland Cavaliers, only four years later James (at age 22) had his undermanned Cleveland Cavaliers fighting for a championship in the NBA finals. (Jordan didn’t reach the finals until he was 29). Somehow, he had surpassed unsurpassable expectations as the next greatest basketball player in the world. I’ve never seen a player of LeBron’s size be able to move with such quickness and fluidity. He’s a man among boys, a Knight among soldiers… a King among commoners. The Cavs did not win the championship in 2007, but James gave the world a glimmer of hope. It was just the tip of the iceberg, and now James has no choice but to live up to the expectations once again.
Let’s cut to the chase and outline what makes James so incredibly gifted. For one, it’s his size; James stands 6’9 tall and weights in at a ‘lean’ 260 lbs. That’s enormous for a player whose skill set resembles that of an elite point guard; and when watching him play I’m convinced his body was biogenetically engineered to play basketball. James is simple an unstoppable force. But what’s more impressive is his athleticism; LeBron is extremely quick for his size, and very strong. I remember watching his first professional game against the Sacramento Kings (when he casually dropped 25 points, 9 board, 7 dimes and 4 steals on 60% from the floor), in the 1st half, James sliced through the defense and drove to the basket. A split second later he was in the paint and Brad Miller (a big and strong center who’s known for throwing his weight around) shied away when he realized the sheer size and power of an 18 year old James. It was at that moment that NBA fans from across the globe understood that he wasn’t like every other touted prospect since Jordan; King James is much more than that. He’s the real deal.
James also has very good hands, and great basketball instinct. There isn’t a significant flaw in his game, but that’s not to say he is perfect. The form on his jump shot is somewhat awkward, and he hasn’t developed much of a mid range game. But as of right now, in his 6th NBA season and at the ripe age of 24, James has his Cavaliers with the best record in the NBA heading into the final 2 weeks of the season, and statistically he’s on pace to finish with the 3rd best PER in NBA history (Take one guess at which former player holds the top 2 slots). To lay it out, he’s (roughly) averaging 28 point, 8 boards, 7 dimes, 2 steals and 1 block on 49% FG, 34% 3PT and 78% FT shooting, all in just 37 minutes of play. The last player to put up a stat-line of that magnitude while leading his team to 60 or more wins was… well you get the picture.
Offensively James is a force to be reckoned with. What makes him such a nightmare to guard is that he is too big for an average defender, and too fast for a larger one, and he’s extremely skilled and durable. He can also shoot over top of any defender brave enough to take him on, and his unselfishness makes him a nightmare for other teams to try and double or triple team. He can finish at the rim, and he knows when to shoot and when to pass. The scariest part – the part that separates him from the rest of the best - is that while using his size and skill to score buckets, King James also has the type of court vision that is only shared by a handful of NBA players, past or present. His basketball IQ is through the roof. As a small forward who averages nearly 30 points per game, James consistently finishes in the top ten players for assists per game average. He is leading the Cavaliers in an NBA-best four regulatory statistical categories; points, assists, rebounds, and steals. That is something even Jordan never accomplished.
He’s no slough on the other side of the court, either. Defensively LeBron can be stifling, using his large size and quick feet to stay in front of opponents and smother them with athleticism. He also has a tendency to stay out of foul trouble, and he uses his length to quickly cover a lot of ground as a help defender. LeBron also cleans up well around the basket, pulling in a career average of 7.0 rebounds per game. He’s a tenacious man-to-man defender, an excellent help defender, and a very good defensive rebounder. It’s no wonder the Cavs are 1st in the league in points allowed per game and 2nd in opponent field goal percentage. In a nutshell, at age 24 King James is already the best basketball player on the planet… and he’s still improving.
The criterion that really separates the great players from the legends is the intangibles and James has proven that he possesses a lot of them. He’s proven that he has the ability to lead his team. In the 2007 playoffs, James scored 29 points in the forth quarter against the most poised team of the decade in the Detroit Pistons, and led his underdog Cavs past the Pistons and into the finals. He’s proven that he has the ability to make his teammates better, too. Mo Williams, a career 44.9% field goal shooter, is shooting 46.6% from the field in his first season with the Cavs. Williams’s 3pt percentage has also gone up by five percent and he made his first all-star game this season. Lastly, James knows how to strike fear into the heart of his opponents. In 2006, James told his rival, Gilbert Arenas, that he wouldn’t make the game tying free throws in a crucial playoff game against the Wizards. Surely enough, Arenas missed both shots, and the Cavs went on to win the game and subsequently, the series.
It would be impossible to forget what Michael Jordan’s has done for the game of basketball. But it’s been a decade now since he last laced up his Nike’s for the Bulls, and the NBA community as a whole is still waiting for a player to sweep us off our feet. With an era of wing player who’ve failed to live up to the high expectations set by Michael, we’ve finally been blessed with a player capable of surpassing his legacy. The odds are still not in his favour, but LeBron James does possess the key elements that make up a truly great player, and with a bit of luck, he could vary well overcome Jordan’s accomplishments. Those who were able to watch Jordan throughout his entire career (including his glory days at North Carolina) are lucky. However, records are made to be broken, and with this new generation of media-frenzy fans, they want nothing more than to watch first hand as a player climbs up to the top of the Greatest of All-Time list. They’re hungry for greatness and James has what it takes to feed them. He is about to win his first MVP and has his Cavaliers in a position to possibly win a championship this season. It’s one of the biggest mountains to climb, but King James has what it takes to do it. Now only time will tell who will retire as the greatest player to wear the number 23.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Tracking Individual Defense
Sunday evening, I began a new basketball project: tracking individual defensive stats for the Toronto Raptors. It began in the loosest of senses when I attended the Raps/Pacers game on the 15th, spilled over to the stat boards, continued on with the Thunder game and then at last took legitimate form as I watched the Raptors outlast the Bulls in an overtime game this past Sunday.
Borrowing liberally from a study begun by Schuyler Davis; some of his work is published over at basketball-statistics.com. The basic method is, at least for now, strikingly similar to the one Mr. Davis used. The details of his method can be found at Basketball-Statistics.com, here. Essentially, I looked at a host of defensive events discretely and recorded when a player either failed notably or played especially good defense. Average events were not recorded, nor would one person be reasonably capable of recording all of those anyway, bearing in mind that there are basically five defensive events happening on every possession. It is worth mentioning that though I performed a trial chart against the Thunder, this was my first full-game chart. There are assuredly many errors, and some subjective judgments that need to be refined and clarified for the next time that I chart a game. It is also true that I am working on finding a more objective way to quantify the results of the game, but in the meantime, the collection of this raw data is an important step to better understanding individual and team defense in a more effective manner than we do now, especially given how clumsy most defensive metrics are.
In any case, I will continue to refine the process as I go along, but for now, the results were still interesting. Bearing in mind that they represent a single-game (and thus very small) sample, the numbers did at least match with the general consensus of Raptors fans: Jose Calderon is not a good defender. Beyond that, the Raptors appeared to play decent defense and the Bulls hit a lot of contested shots (Ben Gordon in particular).
In the first half, Toronto sent Chris Bosh over to help every time Rose got a screen up at the top of the circle and that kept him in check, but once Ben Gordon started putting pressure on the Raptors (he scored only 9 of his 37 points in the first half and only 18 after three quarters), Bosh had other concerns to worry about and Rose was free to attack Calderon in isolation, a matchup decidedly in Chicago’s favor. Rose himself had only 7 of his 23 points after three quarters and erupted on Toronto thereafter. The guard play of the Bulls was nearly too much for Toronto to handle and Chicago’s offense was quite potent, outscoring the Raptors by 13 in the fourth quarter, only to let things slip away in OT because of Rose’s missed layup and the general ineptitude of Tyrus Thomas, who bricked a 16-footer and a 19-footer, his only contributions to the OT period besides a defensive rebound.
Returning to the defensive stats, I was looking at a series of specific events. In particular, I tracked isolation defensive coverage, pick-and-rolls, help rotations/recoveries, contested defensive rebounds and transition defense. In the case of all but the latter, I tracked a positive and negative category. With transition defense, since the opportunities for positive events were so prolific, I only tracked negative events and there were very few, mostly because a player got fouled with no call and fell down (or flopped and fell down) and the Raps were short-handed as a result.
The biggest problem, I found, was choosing whether to record pick-and-roll coverages by the help defender in the pick-and-roll category or the help rotation category. I unconsciously recorded several such events in different columns, so that is definitely something I have to fix the next time around by making a clear choice one way or the other.
The second biggest problem was determining how much was coaching strategy and how much was the players themselves. Before the game, Coach Triano did talk a little about how he planned to play Derrick Rose and you could see it in the first half before Ben Gordon disabused them of the notion that focusing on Rose and not him was the best plan. Once both got going, well, the Raptors couldn’t really do anything because they have but two players who are decent perimeter defenders against guys under 6’5 and those are Parker and Roko. Both did a reasonable job, but it’s difficult to contain that kind of athleticism without a shot-blocker, so we got to see the upside of running two small, athletic guards against a defensive line such as Toronto fielded. The Raptors seemed to design their possessions to that Marion tried to guard Rose, but that was a mistake, and one not much better than if Calderon had been left on Rose. Bosh found himself guarding Gordon in isolation sets repeatedly in the second half and as you can see, that did not work out well at all, though on the possession where Gordon tied the game at the regulation buzzer, Bosh had indeed played him well straight up; Gordon just hit a long J in his face.
So, the basic assumption that Calderon is a poor individual defender was borne out. The demise of Anthony Parker’s defense seems a little presumptuous after watching that game and the Raptors as a team didn’t look bad on many possessions. It was rather stunning to see that in such a high-scoring game, the player doing the most damage was doing it in spite of the defense as opposed to on account of its absence. The Raptors dominated the glass, holding advantages at either end of the floor but the Bulls hit a lot of long jumpers until basically the fourth quarter and overtime, at which point the combined scoring threat of Gordon and Rose was too much for the defense to handle and the lead, as much as 17 points in the fourth quarter, wilted with incredible alacrity.
This proved to be an interesting exercise. As the project progresses, it’ll be interesting to establish a baseline performance level for each of the Raptors players and to be able to compare their performance against specific kinds of offense and see where the Raptors strengths and weaknesses lie in a more particular sense than “athletic guards with jumpers and power-post players,” as is essentially the case for all but the most elite defensive squads. After that, it’ll become interesting to see how effectively this data can be applied to player assessment models and perhaps some kind of “alternate box score” rating metric, perhaps.
Until next time.
Borrowing liberally from a study begun by Schuyler Davis; some of his work is published over at basketball-statistics.com. The basic method is, at least for now, strikingly similar to the one Mr. Davis used. The details of his method can be found at Basketball-Statistics.com, here. Essentially, I looked at a host of defensive events discretely and recorded when a player either failed notably or played especially good defense. Average events were not recorded, nor would one person be reasonably capable of recording all of those anyway, bearing in mind that there are basically five defensive events happening on every possession. It is worth mentioning that though I performed a trial chart against the Thunder, this was my first full-game chart. There are assuredly many errors, and some subjective judgments that need to be refined and clarified for the next time that I chart a game. It is also true that I am working on finding a more objective way to quantify the results of the game, but in the meantime, the collection of this raw data is an important step to better understanding individual and team defense in a more effective manner than we do now, especially given how clumsy most defensive metrics are.
In any case, I will continue to refine the process as I go along, but for now, the results were still interesting. Bearing in mind that they represent a single-game (and thus very small) sample, the numbers did at least match with the general consensus of Raptors fans: Jose Calderon is not a good defender. Beyond that, the Raptors appeared to play decent defense and the Bulls hit a lot of contested shots (Ben Gordon in particular).
In the first half, Toronto sent Chris Bosh over to help every time Rose got a screen up at the top of the circle and that kept him in check, but once Ben Gordon started putting pressure on the Raptors (he scored only 9 of his 37 points in the first half and only 18 after three quarters), Bosh had other concerns to worry about and Rose was free to attack Calderon in isolation, a matchup decidedly in Chicago’s favor. Rose himself had only 7 of his 23 points after three quarters and erupted on Toronto thereafter. The guard play of the Bulls was nearly too much for Toronto to handle and Chicago’s offense was quite potent, outscoring the Raptors by 13 in the fourth quarter, only to let things slip away in OT because of Rose’s missed layup and the general ineptitude of Tyrus Thomas, who bricked a 16-footer and a 19-footer, his only contributions to the OT period besides a defensive rebound.
Returning to the defensive stats, I was looking at a series of specific events. In particular, I tracked isolation defensive coverage, pick-and-rolls, help rotations/recoveries, contested defensive rebounds and transition defense. In the case of all but the latter, I tracked a positive and negative category. With transition defense, since the opportunities for positive events were so prolific, I only tracked negative events and there were very few, mostly because a player got fouled with no call and fell down (or flopped and fell down) and the Raps were short-handed as a result.
The biggest problem, I found, was choosing whether to record pick-and-roll coverages by the help defender in the pick-and-roll category or the help rotation category. I unconsciously recorded several such events in different columns, so that is definitely something I have to fix the next time around by making a clear choice one way or the other.
The second biggest problem was determining how much was coaching strategy and how much was the players themselves. Before the game, Coach Triano did talk a little about how he planned to play Derrick Rose and you could see it in the first half before Ben Gordon disabused them of the notion that focusing on Rose and not him was the best plan. Once both got going, well, the Raptors couldn’t really do anything because they have but two players who are decent perimeter defenders against guys under 6’5 and those are Parker and Roko. Both did a reasonable job, but it’s difficult to contain that kind of athleticism without a shot-blocker, so we got to see the upside of running two small, athletic guards against a defensive line such as Toronto fielded. The Raptors seemed to design their possessions to that Marion tried to guard Rose, but that was a mistake, and one not much better than if Calderon had been left on Rose. Bosh found himself guarding Gordon in isolation sets repeatedly in the second half and as you can see, that did not work out well at all, though on the possession where Gordon tied the game at the regulation buzzer, Bosh had indeed played him well straight up; Gordon just hit a long J in his face.
So, the basic assumption that Calderon is a poor individual defender was borne out. The demise of Anthony Parker’s defense seems a little presumptuous after watching that game and the Raptors as a team didn’t look bad on many possessions. It was rather stunning to see that in such a high-scoring game, the player doing the most damage was doing it in spite of the defense as opposed to on account of its absence. The Raptors dominated the glass, holding advantages at either end of the floor but the Bulls hit a lot of long jumpers until basically the fourth quarter and overtime, at which point the combined scoring threat of Gordon and Rose was too much for the defense to handle and the lead, as much as 17 points in the fourth quarter, wilted with incredible alacrity.
This proved to be an interesting exercise. As the project progresses, it’ll be interesting to establish a baseline performance level for each of the Raptors players and to be able to compare their performance against specific kinds of offense and see where the Raptors strengths and weaknesses lie in a more particular sense than “athletic guards with jumpers and power-post players,” as is essentially the case for all but the most elite defensive squads. After that, it’ll become interesting to see how effectively this data can be applied to player assessment models and perhaps some kind of “alternate box score” rating metric, perhaps.
Until next time.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
SSOS
So it's time for a new post. Actually, it's past time for a new post, but we'll ignore that.
Today's topic is the Phoenix Suns.
There is a great deal to say about what has passed before, so I'm going to ignore all of that for now. Instead, I'm going to focus on a couple of more immediate things, mostly the Orlando game and what's coming up in Miami.
It was clear that Steve Nash needed to rest more; Shaq looked a lot better when Nash wasn't messing around and turning the ball over; an A:T ratio of nearly 1:1 is terrible for Nash, especially because the Suns can't afford those turnovers on account of their poor defense. In any case, Nash had a decidedly unusual game, particularly in the second half; his ankle was still bothering him, it must have been, because he was so tentative. There was one play where he drove, had a point-blank layup and elected to pass through traffic out to Jason Richardson, who fortunately hit the three.
The Suns lost this game mainly because they did a terrible job of guarding Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, both of whom torched the team (Rashard had 11 points in the fourth quarter alone and had a great night on the glass, too). One might also point a finger at how Rafer was getting into the paint, drawing fouls and hitting the three-point shooters very well and criticize Nash, but it was his first game back from a mobility injury, so it would be fruitless.
But why did I bring up this game? It's done and past, right? Nash was busting chemistry because he came back too early and the game was winnable but for a few miscues and a really rough 3rd quarter. There were a few notable aspects of the game that were problematic for the Suns.
The first of these was finishing on the break; this wasn't a critical failure on their part but Grant Hill missed a couple of what should have been gimme-layups coming from the right side (not his favorite side) and the Suns really didn't have anyone to work with on the break that could finish. As a corollary to this, Nash didn't have his favorite play available to him, the high sidescreen.
When Amare's in the game (or in Dallas, Dirk), Nash loves to catch a screen on the wing, and work from there. It's a very effective play, but more importantly, while it creates a lot of options (ball-handler drives, pass to the roll, pass to the pop, pass to the wing, pass to a cutter), it's also a very fast-developing play. And it's his bread-and-butter. This is what has made Nash so effective. He could run it with Amare, he could run it with Diaw...
He can't run it all that often with Shaq, nor can he do all that much with it if he's running it with whichever of Barnes or Hill happens to be running small at the 4. Amundson isn't super-effective in this play either.
The other major areas where the Suns were noticeably lacking are rebounding and help defense. Now, in this particular game, the Suns were only -1 on the glass, largely because Shaq grabbed 6 offensive rebounds, but the point is they couldn't put down an advantage in the rebounding column. In April 2007,The Painted Area published an interesting blog post that noted that only two teams had ever won a title with a negative rebounding margin (the Rockets title squads of the mid-90s) and in the last 20 years, every title squad had at least a rebounding margin of +1.0. Only two other teams besides those Rockets squads even made the Finals with a negative rebounding margin.
Right now, the Suns are at about 0.99, so they've improved their rebounding from back in the D'Antoni days, thanks to Shaq's presence. But now they're missing what they had then, which was roughly acceptable perimeter defense on account of Marion's versatility. Kevin Pelton added to this in a comment to the follow-up post on The Painted Area in January of this year:
"The average champion over your original timespan (1987-2006) is 4.2 percent better than league average on the offensive glass and 1.7 percent better on the defensive glass."
The Suns, for the record, are currently 24th in the league in total team offensive rebounds. They're tops in the league in team eFG% and they're 5th in FTM/FGA; their offense is generally pretty good, but they're a little below league average in offensive rebounding, which doesn't square with Pelton's comment about NBA champions in that specific timeframe. They're also 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage.
So, getting to my long-winded point, while the Suns have improved on the glass, they're still not doing a good enough job.
Beyond this, they also don't have a lot of help defense; Shaq's doing a pretty decent job down low preventing post scorers from having career nights every time they face the Suns, but he was never a dominant shot-blocker but for a year or two in his career, just a very good one.
Enter the Suns' newest addition; according to various sources, Stromile Swift has signed with the Suns and will play out the rest of the season with them... and by all accounts I've heard, is likely to become the starting PF for the team, which means he'll probably be seeing 25+ mpg for Phoenix within a games. If these reports are true, he might even be in uniform for the Miami game.
Swift is many things; worth his draft selection in the 2000 draft is not one of them but what he has always brought is strong offensive rebounding, shot-blocking and athleticism. He's 6'9 or 6'10, and has a wingspan of about 7'3. He's pretty strong and does a decent job of single coverage in the post. He's an outstanding transition finisher and even in the halfcourt, he moves pretty well without the ball to get dunks from teammates. He's got a decent face-up game with a competent left hand, and some years he's got an acceptable mid-range jumper. Usually, he's also not all that bad at the line, too.
So in one move, the Suns have signed a guy who should really help with a lot of the problems we've just been discussing. It falls to Stro to perform, but you expect that he will because it's a limited role but one in which he can succeed, and it's a contract year.
What does this do for Phoenix?
Well, it makes them a much more significant threat to make the postseason. Even if Stro only matches the production he's managed over his career (about 9/5 and a block, or about 15/8 and 2+ blocks PER36), then you're talking about a guy who is still going to shore up their frontcourt rotation. He's a guy who can give Shaq a rest, who can work well with Nash...
This is probably the best situation into which Swift has ever walked. He's as close to a really poor-man's Amare as you can get, which is exactly what Nash has been missing in Amare's absence this year. This isn't an epic steal like Gasol to the Lakers, but it could prove to be an important transaction as the stretch run begins. Swift has been an efficient player when he has shot over his career. He's not an All-Star in hiding, nor is he going to really even approach replacing what Amare brought to the team offensively, but he'll give Nash that extra option and he'll be another efficient tool for a team that's already shooting a hair over 50% FG as a team, which is dangerous when you consider the defensive and rebounding advantages that he will also bring to the team.
If he's given 25 mpg, I'd expect something like 10 and 6 out of Stro on good percentages, maybe even efficiency greater than usual on account of Nash and Phoenix's offensive system. If he can do that while blocking shots, playing good D and hitting the glass hard, then he's going to do a lot for a team that's looking for a booster shot so they can push for that last playoff spot and take it from Dallas.
Today's topic is the Phoenix Suns.
There is a great deal to say about what has passed before, so I'm going to ignore all of that for now. Instead, I'm going to focus on a couple of more immediate things, mostly the Orlando game and what's coming up in Miami.
It was clear that Steve Nash needed to rest more; Shaq looked a lot better when Nash wasn't messing around and turning the ball over; an A:T ratio of nearly 1:1 is terrible for Nash, especially because the Suns can't afford those turnovers on account of their poor defense. In any case, Nash had a decidedly unusual game, particularly in the second half; his ankle was still bothering him, it must have been, because he was so tentative. There was one play where he drove, had a point-blank layup and elected to pass through traffic out to Jason Richardson, who fortunately hit the three.
The Suns lost this game mainly because they did a terrible job of guarding Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, both of whom torched the team (Rashard had 11 points in the fourth quarter alone and had a great night on the glass, too). One might also point a finger at how Rafer was getting into the paint, drawing fouls and hitting the three-point shooters very well and criticize Nash, but it was his first game back from a mobility injury, so it would be fruitless.
But why did I bring up this game? It's done and past, right? Nash was busting chemistry because he came back too early and the game was winnable but for a few miscues and a really rough 3rd quarter. There were a few notable aspects of the game that were problematic for the Suns.
The first of these was finishing on the break; this wasn't a critical failure on their part but Grant Hill missed a couple of what should have been gimme-layups coming from the right side (not his favorite side) and the Suns really didn't have anyone to work with on the break that could finish. As a corollary to this, Nash didn't have his favorite play available to him, the high sidescreen.
When Amare's in the game (or in Dallas, Dirk), Nash loves to catch a screen on the wing, and work from there. It's a very effective play, but more importantly, while it creates a lot of options (ball-handler drives, pass to the roll, pass to the pop, pass to the wing, pass to a cutter), it's also a very fast-developing play. And it's his bread-and-butter. This is what has made Nash so effective. He could run it with Amare, he could run it with Diaw...
He can't run it all that often with Shaq, nor can he do all that much with it if he's running it with whichever of Barnes or Hill happens to be running small at the 4. Amundson isn't super-effective in this play either.
The other major areas where the Suns were noticeably lacking are rebounding and help defense. Now, in this particular game, the Suns were only -1 on the glass, largely because Shaq grabbed 6 offensive rebounds, but the point is they couldn't put down an advantage in the rebounding column. In April 2007,
Right now, the Suns are at about 0.99, so they've improved their rebounding from back in the D'Antoni days, thanks to Shaq's presence. But now they're missing what they had then, which was roughly acceptable perimeter defense on account of Marion's versatility. Kevin Pelton added to this in a comment to the follow-up post on The Painted Area in January of this year:
"The average champion over your original timespan (1987-2006) is 4.2 percent better than league average on the offensive glass and 1.7 percent better on the defensive glass."
The Suns, for the record, are currently 24th in the league in total team offensive rebounds. They're tops in the league in team eFG% and they're 5th in FTM/FGA; their offense is generally pretty good, but they're a little below league average in offensive rebounding, which doesn't square with Pelton's comment about NBA champions in that specific timeframe. They're also 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage.
So, getting to my long-winded point, while the Suns have improved on the glass, they're still not doing a good enough job.
Beyond this, they also don't have a lot of help defense; Shaq's doing a pretty decent job down low preventing post scorers from having career nights every time they face the Suns, but he was never a dominant shot-blocker but for a year or two in his career, just a very good one.
Enter the Suns' newest addition; according to various sources, Stromile Swift has signed with the Suns and will play out the rest of the season with them... and by all accounts I've heard, is likely to become the starting PF for the team, which means he'll probably be seeing 25+ mpg for Phoenix within a games. If these reports are true, he might even be in uniform for the Miami game.
Swift is many things; worth his draft selection in the 2000 draft is not one of them but what he has always brought is strong offensive rebounding, shot-blocking and athleticism. He's 6'9 or 6'10, and has a wingspan of about 7'3. He's pretty strong and does a decent job of single coverage in the post. He's an outstanding transition finisher and even in the halfcourt, he moves pretty well without the ball to get dunks from teammates. He's got a decent face-up game with a competent left hand, and some years he's got an acceptable mid-range jumper. Usually, he's also not all that bad at the line, too.
So in one move, the Suns have signed a guy who should really help with a lot of the problems we've just been discussing. It falls to Stro to perform, but you expect that he will because it's a limited role but one in which he can succeed, and it's a contract year.
What does this do for Phoenix?
Well, it makes them a much more significant threat to make the postseason. Even if Stro only matches the production he's managed over his career (about 9/5 and a block, or about 15/8 and 2+ blocks PER36), then you're talking about a guy who is still going to shore up their frontcourt rotation. He's a guy who can give Shaq a rest, who can work well with Nash...
This is probably the best situation into which Swift has ever walked. He's as close to a really poor-man's Amare as you can get, which is exactly what Nash has been missing in Amare's absence this year. This isn't an epic steal like Gasol to the Lakers, but it could prove to be an important transaction as the stretch run begins. Swift has been an efficient player when he has shot over his career. He's not an All-Star in hiding, nor is he going to really even approach replacing what Amare brought to the team offensively, but he'll give Nash that extra option and he'll be another efficient tool for a team that's already shooting a hair over 50% FG as a team, which is dangerous when you consider the defensive and rebounding advantages that he will also bring to the team.
If he's given 25 mpg, I'd expect something like 10 and 6 out of Stro on good percentages, maybe even efficiency greater than usual on account of Nash and Phoenix's offensive system. If he can do that while blocking shots, playing good D and hitting the glass hard, then he's going to do a lot for a team that's looking for a booster shot so they can push for that last playoff spot and take it from Dallas.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
The Significance of a Superstar
This one's a blog post from my fellow blogmate, Mackie Hilborn. Mackie's going to be the other regular poster here at The Restricted Zone. Enjoy!
Every half decade or so a player enters the NBA draft with so much talent that he alone has the ability to not only change the fate of a single franchise, but the landscape of the entire NBA. Usually this player is sought after from a young age and labeled a superstar before the age of 20. When the young phenom finally becomes eligible for the NBA draft, one comment can trigger the collective drool of every General Manager with a chance to win the draft lottery “I’m going pro.” Maybe the drool comes from years of experience, and these veterans of the game understand the significance of a superstar. In 1992 the Orlando Magic arrived on draft day with the name O’Neal stitched onto the back of a blue and black XXXXL jersey (it was too small). Three years later, a 24 year old Shaq had The Magic competing for a championship in the NBA finals.
Other times, this superstar-in-the-making develops at a later age, and NBA fans are left with nightmares having passed on such a magnificent talent in the draft. Kobe Bryant was selected 13th overall in the 1997 NBA draft by the Charlotte Hornets, and was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers. Four years later Kobe was hoisting the first of three Larry O’Brien trophies with the Los Angeles Lakers. Looking back, I’m certain the Dallas Mavericks would have selected Bryant four picks earlier instead of Samaki Walker. Instead, they watched in awe as the Lakers marched through the Western Conference playoffs for nearly half a decade.
What’s important here is that NBA superstars do not come around very often, and when they do a team better not pass up the opportunity to grab one. Joe Dumars has done a good job at the helm of the Detroit Pistons, but a blunder in the 2003 draft tainted his legacy, when he selected career roll player Darko Milicic over current NBA All-Stars Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and most notably, Finals MVP Dwyane Wade. Hindsight will forever be 20 / 20, but if Dumars had selected Wade with the 2nd overall pick, you can be sure Detroit would still be amongst the elite teams in the NBA. Conversely, the Miami Heat would never have been blessed with such a talent, and would never have won the 2006 NBA championship. Shaq would be left with only three pieces of bling on his fingers, and Dirk Nowitzki would be held in much higher regard. Perception is a scary animal, and it is bizarre how quickly the history books will change with one simple draft pick.
The significance of an NBA superstar is simple. Unlike in Football, Baseball or Hockey, an NBA player can dominate for almost an entire game without having to sit off for rest. LeBron James is playing an outstanding 37.7 minutes per game this season (Feb 20, 2009), which equates to 78.5% of the game. Could you imagine the impact Albert Pujols would have in the Cards rotation if he was batting 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th? Or, if Jarome Iginla could play for two and a half periods of hockey straight without coming off the ice? Or what if Tom Brady could follow up a 300 yard, three touchdown performance with 12 tackles and two sacks on the other side of the ball? The outcomes would be summed up into one word: domination. There is no better word to describe the significance of an NBA superstar than pure domination.
What defines a superstar is not standard across all measuring sticks, but there are certainly three criteria that everyone can agree upon. For starters, an NBA superstar can have no glaring weaknesses in their game. Now before you get all fussy and announce Shaq’s free throw percentages, bare is minding that Shaq’s poor free throw shooting is offset but his ability to get to the line so frequently. Shaq is so powerful that it is nearly impossible to just foul him without risking a three point play and/or putting yourself into foul trouble. Shaq’s free throw percentage is abysmal (although he always hit the ones that counted), but by putting extreme pressure on opposing team’s front courts, his overall ability to impact a game from the free throw line is acceptable. You find me a superstar with a weakness, and I will deem him no superstar at all.
The second criterion shared amongst all superstars is their ability to utterly dominate more than one aspect of the game. Kobe Bryant, for example, is an unstoppable scorer and a tenacious defender. This makes him a nightmare for teams to game plan for because even during an off night he will have a large impact on the game. You don’t believe me, check for yourself, and start sifting through the superstars. Dwight Howard is an exceptional shot blocker and a governing rebounder. Chris Paul is a proficient scorer and a brilliant distributor. Tim Duncan is an incredible defender and an excellent scorer; and rebounder, shot blocker, passer and leader. Superstars have the ability to dominate at least two aspects of the game, which guarantees that their impact will be significant every time they step onto the court.
Lastly, a superstar must have the intangibles needed to overcome adversity. In game 6 of the 1980 NBA finals, rookie superstar Magic Johnson played center and scored 45 points, grabbed 15 rebounds, dished out 7 assists and snagged 3 steals in place of an injured Abdul-Jabbar, and lead his team to the first of many NBA championships. Stepping up in times of need, making clutch plays and acquiring an unrelenting work ethic are important intangibles. However, the most important aspect of all, the one that truly defines the greatness of a superstar, is one that cannot be determined by statistics but rather by watching him play; his ability to lead.
Looking back in history, only a handful of teams have won an NBA championship without a superstar player. In fact, in the past 30 years the only team to have accomplished this feat was the 2004 Detroit Pistons, when Larry Brown coached a perfectly balanced team to the title. To quote Russell Crowe from Gladiator “What you do in life, echoes in eternity.” The significant of an NBA superstar is not only defined by all-star appearances, MVP trophies, or championships parades. It is defined by their ability to lead and by the mark that they leave on the game of basketball.
Every half decade or so a player enters the NBA draft with so much talent that he alone has the ability to not only change the fate of a single franchise, but the landscape of the entire NBA. Usually this player is sought after from a young age and labeled a superstar before the age of 20. When the young phenom finally becomes eligible for the NBA draft, one comment can trigger the collective drool of every General Manager with a chance to win the draft lottery “I’m going pro.” Maybe the drool comes from years of experience, and these veterans of the game understand the significance of a superstar. In 1992 the Orlando Magic arrived on draft day with the name O’Neal stitched onto the back of a blue and black XXXXL jersey (it was too small). Three years later, a 24 year old Shaq had The Magic competing for a championship in the NBA finals.
Other times, this superstar-in-the-making develops at a later age, and NBA fans are left with nightmares having passed on such a magnificent talent in the draft. Kobe Bryant was selected 13th overall in the 1997 NBA draft by the Charlotte Hornets, and was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers. Four years later Kobe was hoisting the first of three Larry O’Brien trophies with the Los Angeles Lakers. Looking back, I’m certain the Dallas Mavericks would have selected Bryant four picks earlier instead of Samaki Walker. Instead, they watched in awe as the Lakers marched through the Western Conference playoffs for nearly half a decade.
What’s important here is that NBA superstars do not come around very often, and when they do a team better not pass up the opportunity to grab one. Joe Dumars has done a good job at the helm of the Detroit Pistons, but a blunder in the 2003 draft tainted his legacy, when he selected career roll player Darko Milicic over current NBA All-Stars Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and most notably, Finals MVP Dwyane Wade. Hindsight will forever be 20 / 20, but if Dumars had selected Wade with the 2nd overall pick, you can be sure Detroit would still be amongst the elite teams in the NBA. Conversely, the Miami Heat would never have been blessed with such a talent, and would never have won the 2006 NBA championship. Shaq would be left with only three pieces of bling on his fingers, and Dirk Nowitzki would be held in much higher regard. Perception is a scary animal, and it is bizarre how quickly the history books will change with one simple draft pick.
The significance of an NBA superstar is simple. Unlike in Football, Baseball or Hockey, an NBA player can dominate for almost an entire game without having to sit off for rest. LeBron James is playing an outstanding 37.7 minutes per game this season (Feb 20, 2009), which equates to 78.5% of the game. Could you imagine the impact Albert Pujols would have in the Cards rotation if he was batting 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th? Or, if Jarome Iginla could play for two and a half periods of hockey straight without coming off the ice? Or what if Tom Brady could follow up a 300 yard, three touchdown performance with 12 tackles and two sacks on the other side of the ball? The outcomes would be summed up into one word: domination. There is no better word to describe the significance of an NBA superstar than pure domination.
What defines a superstar is not standard across all measuring sticks, but there are certainly three criteria that everyone can agree upon. For starters, an NBA superstar can have no glaring weaknesses in their game. Now before you get all fussy and announce Shaq’s free throw percentages, bare is minding that Shaq’s poor free throw shooting is offset but his ability to get to the line so frequently. Shaq is so powerful that it is nearly impossible to just foul him without risking a three point play and/or putting yourself into foul trouble. Shaq’s free throw percentage is abysmal (although he always hit the ones that counted), but by putting extreme pressure on opposing team’s front courts, his overall ability to impact a game from the free throw line is acceptable. You find me a superstar with a weakness, and I will deem him no superstar at all.
The second criterion shared amongst all superstars is their ability to utterly dominate more than one aspect of the game. Kobe Bryant, for example, is an unstoppable scorer and a tenacious defender. This makes him a nightmare for teams to game plan for because even during an off night he will have a large impact on the game. You don’t believe me, check for yourself, and start sifting through the superstars. Dwight Howard is an exceptional shot blocker and a governing rebounder. Chris Paul is a proficient scorer and a brilliant distributor. Tim Duncan is an incredible defender and an excellent scorer; and rebounder, shot blocker, passer and leader. Superstars have the ability to dominate at least two aspects of the game, which guarantees that their impact will be significant every time they step onto the court.
Lastly, a superstar must have the intangibles needed to overcome adversity. In game 6 of the 1980 NBA finals, rookie superstar Magic Johnson played center and scored 45 points, grabbed 15 rebounds, dished out 7 assists and snagged 3 steals in place of an injured Abdul-Jabbar, and lead his team to the first of many NBA championships. Stepping up in times of need, making clutch plays and acquiring an unrelenting work ethic are important intangibles. However, the most important aspect of all, the one that truly defines the greatness of a superstar, is one that cannot be determined by statistics but rather by watching him play; his ability to lead.
Looking back in history, only a handful of teams have won an NBA championship without a superstar player. In fact, in the past 30 years the only team to have accomplished this feat was the 2004 Detroit Pistons, when Larry Brown coached a perfectly balanced team to the title. To quote Russell Crowe from Gladiator “What you do in life, echoes in eternity.” The significant of an NBA superstar is not only defined by all-star appearances, MVP trophies, or championships parades. It is defined by their ability to lead and by the mark that they leave on the game of basketball.
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