First Up

OK, so this post is a little later than I intended, but here we go, the first post of the new era of The Restricted Zone.

There isn't a TON going on in the NBA right now because it's the off-season and we're already past most of the good bits. Summer league, major free agent acquisitions, the draft, all that good stuff is done. So now we have crummy rumors about Carmelo Anthony being disgruntled in Denver and the unpleasant news about the fools defacing the mural in Sacramento, etc. So what's there to talk about?

Well, by default, since we live in Toronto, we could talk about my Raptors... but frankly, I'm in the mood for a more positive topic, so let's see what we can dig up on the prospects of someone other than L.A., Boston or Miami. Those are presumably the three most likely options to win the title. For the sake of symmetry, let's have a peek out West and see if we can't find the next best option behind L.A.

The first option is obviously Dallas, since they were only 2 games behind the Lakers last year. With the Suns losing Amare, they're not likely to repeat quite the performance they had last season, so that leaves us considering Denver, Utah and then maybe San Antonio or Oklahoma City. So let's work from the bottom up, starting with OKC and finishing with Dallas.

The Thunder are mostly the same team that won 50 games and made the playoffs last year. They've added Cole Aldrich, Morris Peterson, Daequan Cook and they'll have a full season from Eric Maynor. Likely more valuable than any of those additions, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will each have learned lessons from the season and the first-round series against the Lakers. Durant was pretty disappointing in that series, shooting 35%, scoring 25 ppg mainly because he continued to draw FTAs. Westbrook looked pretty good, though Jeff Green was abysmal. James Harden will hopefully get a little better, Aldrich should work well as a sub for Ibaka and round out the frontcourt rotation, while Mo Pete and Daequan Cook should add subs who can stick threes, which were something of a problem for the Thunder in the series against L.A. for everyone but Westbrook and Harden, which of course didn't help offensive spacing or KD's case against the L.A. defense.

What are the chances they take a step forward? Well, they're almost sure to win 50+ again because most of the big noise was made out East and the WC didn't seem to get a lot better. The short answer to this is that Durant and Westbrook will drive that team; without significant improvement from one or both, they'll perform about the same as they did last year because their supporting cast isn't all that compelling. Westbrook looks like he might take another leap forward though, perhaps as a more efficient scoring threat, and that would be a pretty significant change. We'll see. They'll be good again, and they're a young team as well, so experience alone will do a lot for them. I'll be watching Durant pretty carefully as far as seeing what he can add to his scoring repertoire when his shot isn't falling from outside, etc, etc. I want to see him develop his in-between game, make it a little more diverse, but the Thunder definitely have a bright future.

San Antonio is pinning its hopes on exactly two things:

1) Tiago Splitter

They're hoping he can come in and really give them quality minutes to take some pressure off of their Big 3 and really help them get back to the kind of defense they had back when Duncan was younger and they still had Bowen. Naturally, they'll look to him to take some offensive pressure off, rebound the ball, all that jazz. Maybe 1a) is them looking for what George Hill can do.

2) Tim Duncan

This is the important one, and I don't mean it in the broad sense. Duncan's 15 pounds lighter than he was at this time last year, rested up some, healthy, hoping he can stay that way for most of the season after flirting with plantar fasciitis and other foot/knee-related injuries and problems the past few seasons. If he's healthy, they have a shot still because he's still an 18/10 player who plays good D and shows up stronger in the playoffs (20/10, basically).

There isn't much else to say; they won 50 games last year, they beat the Mavs and were swept by the Suns. I suspect they'll win a few more games because Phoenix will fall off and they have a shot at the conference finals. I doubt San Antonio has what it takes to beat the Lakers. Richard Jefferson was a bad fit and a big disappointment, DaJuan Blair was not... Tony Parker is an expiring contract, and it is possible (if unlikely) that the Spurs try to move him. The Spurs are a long-shot to be a real competitor.

Utah? Al Jefferson instead of Carlos Boozer, hmm. Similar rebounders, Jefferson's a better isolation scorer and similar on defense. Kirilenko is an expiring, so that's a potential mid-season deal right there. They were a 53-win team, and they still have Deron and a 20/10 big, plus Okur should be healthy eventually, they've still got Millsap and they've got a useful guard corp, even if it isn't a star-studded one. And who knows? Maybe Gordon Hayward will be good! They've also added Raja Bell who, while old and declining, should still be able to defend in-system and space the floor with his shooting. I figure another 52- to 55-win season and a strong playoff run, likely ending against L.A. in the second round. Maybe the conference finals, they're pretty good.

Denver. Controversy and drama with Melo! A sick coach who missed the playoffs last year! The Nuggets aren't exactly headed into the season with stability, and this isn't a team that's well-poised and collected to begin with (JR Smith, I'm looking at you...). Martin's injured, Melo's had two injured seasons, Nene's likely to BE injured again (given his history), Ty Lawson played 65 games... It's no small wonder that these guys had some trouble, particularly with Dantley "coaching" them in their series against Utah. Great regular season offense, sub-par defense. Smith sucked in the playoffs even while Melo played a great series. This team needs better structure and direction. And health. If Melo's healthy, this is a team that could win 60 games; they won 53 last year anyhow with Melo playing in only 69 games and struggling with his scoring efficiency (mostly finishing at the rim, but also his 3pt shot). They need Martin to be healthy-ish, as well. Otherwise, they'll flame out in the first or second round again.

And that brings us to the Mavericks, the team I consider the second-best choice to come out of the West... for whatever that's actually worth.

Dallas still has Dirk, but their only major change from last year was to change their rotation from Dampier (and a partial season from Haywood) to Haywood/Chandler. They'll have a full season from Caron Butler, with whom they went 20-7 at the end of the year. Unfortunately, they still have Jason Terry, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion.

Matrix was completely useless in the first round loss to San Antonio, Jason Terry shot under 36% from UNDER the arc (whole shooting 40% from 3), which is common for him. Terry is a low-effectiveness kind of player, super-streaky and very unreliable. He was anti-clutch in the Finals against the Heat (and, with Josh Howard, the real reason the Mavs don't have a championship banner) and he's still featured prominently in their offense, which isn't a good thing.

Worse, though, is that they still have Jason Kidd, who was so bad against San Antonio it hurt my BRAIN. Kidd is a poor scoring threat to begin with, and too old and slow (especially post-surgery) to be super-effective at anything but hitting set, open 3s any more. Against San Antonio, he was putrid. He looked like that old guy at the gym who used to know how to play but finally fell off the edge and can't do it anymore. He was fine in the regular season, then just completely disappeared as a non-factor in the playoffs.

And that means it's up to Dirk and the center position, which does not include a second scoring threat. Dirk was outstanding against San Antonio. The Mavs need a second playmaker very, very badly. Butler looked pretty good in the San Antonio series as a scorer, even though he couldn't hit from downtown; it wasn't the most efficient or pretty thing I've ever seen but he got it done. But when Dirk is your second-best passer, then you've got a problem, and that's not a sleight towards Nowitzki; the Dallas perimeter needs an upgrade, badly.

So this is a little preview of the season as it stands right now. Things will change, trades will be made, injuries will occur and 7 months from now, but by and large, I think we all realize we're looking at an L.A. vs Boston/Miami Finals series barring catastrophe for one of those three teams. The Western Conference playoffs should be a treat to watch, but unless Kobe falls off into decline more sharply than projected (and it isn't off-set by the acquisition of Blake and Barnes), then I don't see L.A. failing to make the Finals. Winning, that's another story, but the Western Conference doesn't look like it'll be a huge stress-test for the Lakers.